launched at least three previously unreported investigations into trading on the prediction market
, according to documents obtained by WIRED through a Freedom of Information Act request.
Voting records from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the federal agency that regulates
, shed new light on how the government approaches these investigations. In early May, CFTC chairman Michael Selig approved an order allowing the agency’s enforcement division to launch a private investigation into potential insider trading on Polymarket event contracts related to pardons issued by former president Joseph Biden. The order granted permission to take testimony, obtain subpoenas, administer oaths, and require the production of documents in the course of the investigation.
The documents obtained by WIRED did not specify which trades were under suspicion, but the order came several weeks after
on a suspicious Polymarket trader who netted over $300,000 on pardon-related markets in the final days of the Biden administration. The trader correctly wagered that the former president would issue preemptive pardons to a number of prominent MAGA critics, including former US representatives Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger, and US senator Adam Schiff.
At the end of May, Selig approved another investigation order. This time, the topic was “Iran event contracts” on Polymarket. As with the Biden pardon documents, the investigation order did not provide details, but it came two weeks after
on a network of suspicious Polymarket accounts that made $2.4 million on Iran-related trades, with a 98 percent win rate.
“If these investigations are being prompted solely by press reports of potential violations of the Commodities Exchange Act, that’s a significant sign of weakness in this regulatory scheme,” says Joseph Konizeski, a former chief trial attorney in the CFTC’s division of enforcement. The agency has
in the second Trump era for its perceived friendliness to the prediction market industry.
In July, Selig greenlit a third investigation, this time focused on suspected insider trading on Google-themed Polymarket event contracts. In an email exchange included in the documents obtained by WIRED, Paul Hayeck, the acting director of the CFTC’s department of enforcement, noted that the investigation would focus on “additional individuals who may have engaged in insider trading related to Google’s 2025 Year in Search Ranking.” Hayeck wrote that the Southern District of New York is conducting a “parallel investigation.” He specified that the CFTC’s investigation would be separate from the
SDNY declined to comment. Google declined to comment. It pointed WIRED to a statement it released in June noting that Spagnuolo was no longer with the company. The CFTC did not respond to requests for comment and questions about the status of the investigations.
“While we do not comment on specific investigations, we regularly refer matters to law enforcement and support ongoing investigations as part of our commitment to protecting the integrity of our markets,” Olivia Chalos, deputy chief legal officer at Polymarket, told WIRED in an email.
Polymarket itself. The company, which had its flagship platform banned from the United States in 2022, was permitted to launch a US-regulated version with a narrower set of markets in late 2025. It recently underwent
led by Donald Trump Jr.’s venture capital firm, 1789 Capital, which valued the company at $21 billion.
The CFTC has also launched investigations into potential insider trading on Kalshi, Polymarket’s archrival, in the past. According to The New York Times, Kalshi
former US representative George Santos $35,000 for his behavior related to a Kalshi contract about whether he would attend Trump’s 2026 State of the Union address.
to Santos for violating its rules on market manipulation for the same behavior, and also fined him just over $71,000. Santos was not criminally charged.
So far, two arrests have been made stemming from Polymarket insider trading investigations. In April, federal authorities arrested
who prosecutors say used classified information to make more than $400,000 in profits on event contracts related to the capture of former Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro. And in May, Spagnuolo, who allegedly made over $1.2 million on insider trades,
while traveling to New York. In both cases, the CFTC filed civil charges, and the Department of Justice filed criminal fraud charges. Both men are
by arguing that Polymarket trades are a form of betting and not subject to commodities law.
It’s unclear if the Department of Justice has launched parallel investigations into the Iran War or Biden pardon contracts. The DOJ did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
A former CFTC staffer tells WIRED that parallel criminal investigations are likely, “given the significance of the matters.”
Update 9/11/2026 4:15 pm ET: This story has been updated to include a response from SDNY.